Thursday, February 10, 2011

We are all just one

I know that I am the outcome of a lottery game. I am just a ticket number, let's say, 308,547. Just like in a raffle, where all numbers have a prize, be it a toaster or a TV set. Only that I am not sure if a I could be the proverbial toaster, or a pressing iron or a vacuum cleaner. The thing is that I am Augusto Rufasto, son of Augusto and Virginia. I am IT, and there's no discussion about that. I am lucky enough to be alive, to have been born to this world. But as well, it come to my attention, I could have been the neighbors' kid, whose name is another one, whose attributes largely differ from mine. I could have been another person! I could... have been... So what if...? Yes, what if I actually am that somebody else, in a "parallel" reality? According to this viewpoint, I am everybody, therefore. Also, with a smooth extension of this line of thinking, I am probably just a "point of view" of a whole being, just like there are infinite corners from which a three dimensional object can be watched, then the person who I feel that I am is just only one of these points of view.

Do you want to be rich? Then think about this!

I noticed that during my twenties, when I could be considered by all aspects a grown up, I started dreaming about success. Big success, sweet success, steady success, influence, recognition, power. It all needed to naturally come to me, because I was "special". Through my thirties, I realized that it actually wasn't coming to me with ease. So I secretly complained about my luck, and about fate. Then I started reading all sorts of material about the path to create riches. It all seemed just fine that hundredths of authors were validating the "become rich easily" approach. But...

The Power of Man: The Power of Suggestion

If somebody really believes in you, no matter if that somebody is someone else or you yourself, then your life experiences change. If that somebody happens to be a very closer person, or you yourself, the changes are dramatic, and you start turning into reality the potential you always had inside you, for all of us have an inner dormant power to do extraordinary things.

Let's Create Wealth NOW

Let's be wealthy, let's state our position about creating wealth: do we want it? do we think it's possible? We can answer anyway we like to these two questions, and there will be infinite answers to them, while only one possible combination of answers that will take us to the wealthy condition: Yes, and Yes. The human being is worth a lot by itself, it's worth billions of billions of dollars, isn't it? Is it possible to create a human kidney if we pay one billion dollars? No. Is it possible for a machine to think a thought if we invest one trillion dollars in it? No. People tend to forget how worthy they are just because we, made of matter more valuable than platinum or diamonds, are so used to play with inert goods that shine and glitter. Why do we feel incapable to create wealth? Because we are astray from the real source of riches, and are convinced that only luck or hard work will allow us to get there. Trusting mere good fortune will take you to bankruptcy, and believing that hard work is the key to riches will result in a major disappointment. The real power of man differs from physical force, but consists on his confidence on his own self. Man creates, his stay on Earth is aimed to show not that he can be a trusted worker for somebody else, but that he can become a powerful creator for the sake of his own self and for the benefit of the whole world.

You can be rich, if you only believe that you can be rich. Believe otherwise, and your fate will drift away from wealth and welfare.

Prisoner's Dilemma

Long time ago some very smart thinker created a concept called the Prisoner's Dilemma. The model was there to show a plausible way to analyze the competitive interaction of two people and set who were individualistically looking for payoffs, the two agents being in a situation that somehow hinted for ruining the other agent's possibility to any gains as a result of the personal-egotistic nature of each one agent. Moreover, the Prisoner's Dilemma turns into a moral about how seeking for the personal benefit will result into the ruin of everyone in a real life situation, given, of course, that that situation's conditions match those of the model.

The above said, it must be noted that the Prisoner's Dilemma is regarded as a masterpiece of counter-intuitive analysis, and considered a concept peer to that of minimax analysis. I applied my own version of the acid test to the Prisoner's Dilemma, and found out that a lot of its power comes out of the minds of those who are beiong introduced to it rather than being an essential part of the formulation of the model itself. To say this in simpler terms: the model is incomplete because it relies on the emotions of the analyst rather than on its own structure. Allow me to elaborate.

Suppose there are two small firms dedicated to the development of new energy sources: Xenergy and Y-Fuel, and that both firms belong to the same market, and have some interactive dynamics that will restrain them from being held by two shareholders, making the matter of the share value a very important one. Furthermore, there is a duopoly in the market for energy generation, so that AlphaCo and BetaPower are the only two major firms that might be interested in acquiring the new small firms. Now, we mentioned that interaction will affect the performance of the small firms. In detail, the conditions, summarized in the table below, are:


Beta X Beta Y
Alpha X 2, 2 0, 3
Beta Y 3, 0 1, 1


1) If AlphaCo and BetaPower both of them decide to purchase share packages of Xenergy, then profits coming out from the total annual activity will be of 4 billion dollars, allowing each one major firm to receive 2 billion dollars of net profits. This seems to be appealing to both firms, for the amount earned is huge.

2) If AlphaCo decides to buy Xenergy, and BetaPower buys Y-Fuel, then the net profits in the market will be of only 3 billion dollars, and Xenergy won't get any of them, therefore leaving AlphaCo with zero profits at the end of the year, and BetaPower with round three billion dollars. While this scenario is really appealing to BetaPower, it threatens to harm AlphaCo level of profits.

3) If AlphaCo buys Y-Fuel and BetaPower buys Xenergy, it will be AlphaCo the one to make the three billion dollars, and BetaPower to get zero profits. An scenario appealing to AlphaCo, but dreadful to BetaPower.

4) Now, if both of them decide to buy shares from Y-Fuel, then the performance of the energy market will be that of 2 billion dollars, to be split between AlphaCo (one billion dollars) and BetaPower (one billion dollars).
And then which one should we expect to be the definitive scenario for this interaction? Well, according to the conventional approach for the prisoner's dilemma, we should expect both firms to try to outsmart the other one and generate a (suboptimal) outcome such as Y-Y (AlphaCo will buy Y-Fuel under the assumption that BetaPower will likely buy Xenergy, and BetaPower will buy Y-Fuel under the assumption that AlphaCo will buy Xenergy). Each one firm receives the suboptimal profit level of 1 billion dollars at the end of the year. Now, let's review this conflictive interaction (namely, a "game"), with two different, simpler individuals. Let's say Al and Bob, two young brothers.

So one day Al and Bob's uncle Ernie comes with two two-sided cards, each card having a white side and a black side. Uncle Ernie gives a card to each one and proposes a game, that if each one chooses the white card, he'll give two dollars to each one, if one chooses the white card and the other the black card, the one with the black card gets 3 dollars and the one with the white card nothing. Finally, if each one gets the black card, each one gets one dollar from him. The kids are taken to two different rooms, so that they won't be able to talk to the other. Al's thinking process goes as follows: if I choose the white card, then I am giving two choices to Bob. Choice 1: that he picks also a white card, so that both of us receive 2 dollars. But he will also have a second choice, to pick a black card, in which case I do not receive anything and he gets three dollars. And if I pick a black card and he picks a white card, then he doesn't get anything, and I get three dollars. But if he decides also to pick the black card, then I am getting just one dollar.

The End of the Beginning

Jack Walker got out of the bed in a day he couldn't name. It was a long while since the last time he was certain of anything. It didn't matter, though. Jack knew that there was only one thing to pay attention to, one sign. Still sleepy, he reached his right pocket and held that little gem that could make a big difference in his life. It was still dark inside the room, but he knew it didn't matter at all. In a quick move he drew his hand and threw a glance to the stone. Was it really blue? It could have been just a trick played by his eyes. So he close them. Three seconds later, he saw the stone again, and it was, definitely, blue. It was the time. After the long wait, the time had finally come for him to act.

The Power of Man. Note 1

It is said that Albert Einstein used only 10% of his brain to create his theories. I’ve been thinking about it, and somehow tend to conclude that the world is a better place to live than we can possibly imagine. Just for starters, I think that anyone who can use his brains at least at the 10% level Einstein did, will, undoubtedly, capable to acquire wisdom. And wisdom is likely to be currently a very scarce asset, throughout the whole world, or we would not be depending on fossil fuel and would not be witnesses of such bane as famine and wars.